Welcome anon to another week of paid content.
Some of you may have noticed a few changes to the structure of my posts. I have moved my overall macro forecasts to occur every other week, as there are a lot of crypto specific articles I want to write that I think a lot of people gain significant value from. Moving these forecasts to an every other week schedule, allows for me to make 2-3 crypto specific posts every other week. I still have a lot of guides to write, and a lot of crypto related content to write about.
I am also going to make a separate once a month post updating on the US treasury markets from here on out. And the macro-review posts will now link to the most recent version of that post instead of re-iterating the same information multiple times a month. The major treasury auctions occur only once a month, so it doesnt make sense for me to provide weekly updates since that only covers the shortest term auctions.
If you have thoughts about these changes, or would like to see something else on a weekly basis, let me know. You are paying for this content, so you always have a say.
Please refer to the Backdrop Post and trade with mindfulness.
Please refer to Definitions page for any terms or abbreviations that I use that you don’t understand. If a term is missing, please let me know.
Please feel free to skip around or ignore certain sections if it does not apply to you. The Table of Contents is made to preserve your time in this manner. You can always simply read the conclusion if you are in a hurry.
All times given in this update are in US Central time (UTC-6 clock).
Song of the week - ГАМОРА - Второе Дыхание
Maybe it’s time we all learned a little russian, huh?
Table of Contents
Economic Calendar
US Employment News
Australian and Eurozone Interest Rates
The Eurozone
Australia
Bank of England Interest Rates
Crypto Macro
Degen Play of the Week
Conclusion
1. Economic Calendar
Refer to Economic Calendar Settings Post for filter settings used.
At first glance it looks like a busy week, but again, there is a lot of information here that will have little to no impact on the markets. Nobody cares what the GDP of Europe is, really nobody cares.
What we will be watching, as always, are the central bank decisions, and the few items that these central banks are watching, they are as follows.
Monday - Australian Interest Rate decision
Wednesday - US employment change estimate by ADP
Thursday - Bank of England, and Bank of Europe Interest Rate decisions
Friday - US Non-farm payrolls
Some could say that PMI for the US market is important, but it really is just an index that reflects whether manufacturing and service providers are growing or decreasing compared to the previous month. These are expected to be positive, and would only really be meaningful if a significant divergence occurred compared to the expected forecast. I don’t expect much of a divergence here, so it’s not worth us watching.
You’ll note that almost all of the content we are watching are interest rate decisions, and the most important one is going to be from the Bank of England as they are likely to make a continuation of my previous expectations to create a significant carry trade and likely a large swing trade for the year, as was outlined in previous posts (a description of the creation of a carry trade and frontrunning it is in the footnotes of this post). A screenshot is below.
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