Welcome we will be reviewing macro events from this past week from The Post I made at the beginning of this week on 1/30/22.
I have added a Definitions page which will include all of the terms and abbreviations that I use from now on and will be referred to on every post.
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Table of Contents
Mindfulness of Ignorance
US Employment Status
Australian and Eurozone Interest Rates
Eurozone
Australia
Overnight Rate Impacts on the Mortgage Markets
Bank of England
Crypto Macro
Degen Update
Conclusion
1. Mindfulness of Ignorance
There is a great book here that I want to recommend on this topic. This is a problem that doesn’t really seem like a problem because it’s usually indicative of success. When you start winning, you will find that you quickly start to snowball into winning more and more often. There is an effect called The Winner Effect, I’ve mentioned it before, but there is a great book on the subject. Many of you have probably seen Jordan Peterson’s content on lobsters which covers the same exact neuro-circuitry, but in terms of social heirarchies.
Somehow your body, and your hormonal glands know when you are winning, and when you are losing. And as you start winning, your body will start secreting more and more serotonin which makes you feel more and more comfortable, confident and self-assured whenever doing the thing that you were previously winning at. So, you ask, “what’s so bad about that?” Indeed, why wouldn’t you want to feel more comfortable and confident when trading in these markets? Well, there are two forms of confidence in these markets. Short term confidence, and Long term confidence. You want to build up the second form of confidence, while ignoring short term confidence.
As you start winning in these markets, you need to be taking some profits off of the table, no matter how confident you feel in yourself. An issue people often run into when they are early on in this space is that the Serotonin that floods their brain tricks them into thinking they can do no wrong in this space. We have to maintain our Mindfulness of our Ignorance. This means taking profits and maintaining our mindfulness of what we do and don’t know. I will provide an example in Section 5 when I cover how my Degen play of the week performed and its current status in the Degen Update.
No matter how well you do, do not forget, that you don’t know what you don’t know. This is the biggest point of failure for people who are self-taught and do not have the benefit of an experienced mentor, and it’s also one of the key things a good mentor will remind you of.
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