Welcome we will be reviewing macro events from this past week from The Post I made at the beginning of this week on 8/22/22.
I have added a Definitions page which will include all of the terms and abbreviations that I use from now on and will be referred to on every post.
Substack has launched an iOS app for those of you using apple devices. I am an android peasant and can’t tell you if its good or not, but check it out if you have an iPhone or some other such trappings of royalty.
Please feel free to skip around or ignore certain sections if it does not apply to you. The Table of Contents is made to preserve your time in this manner. You can always simply read the conclusion if you are in a hurry.
Table of Contents
Talent Begets an Obligation
US GDP Q2 2022
Jackson Hole
Crypto Macro
Conclusion
1. Talent begets an obligation
I’ve stated before that Powell looks up to Volcker as his hero. Not for doing the right thing, but because Paul Volcker was able to do things despite the fact that nobody at the time liked what Volcker was doing. And I’ll say that I also view Volcker similarly. I’ve spoken of what I believe a hero is before as an explanation of the failings of the Bank of England, and I view Volcker as a hero. A hero is a person who accepts the negative consequences of doing what’s right. If you do what’s right and the crowd is cheering you, you’re not a hero, and chances are you’re doing the wrong thing. If the TV approves of what you did, you’re not a hero. If what you do has no benefit to you and costs you your job, your income, your livelihood, your home, your safety, your savings, or causes injury or death, you’re on the right track. You don’t have to be a hero. Nobody has to. But when you are in a position to do so, I think it is of the utmost importance for you to do so. When the mob comes for you, say no and face the slings and arrows of the crowd. The average person, through no fault of their own, is unable to do some very specific logical computations in their head that makes them incapable of understanding certain subjects, economics is one of them. This isn’t to dunk on them, we all have our strengths and our roles to play in a healthy society.
There will always be a mob fighting back against sound economics because some of the concepts require abstract reasoning to understand. Even explaining to people the pricing of treasury bonds and it’s inverse relationship to yield goes over most people’s heads. This isn’t a fault or problem with these people, in much the same way that you wouldn’t judge a 5’9 man (1.8 meters tall for non-Americans) for his inability to dunk a basketball. Nor would you judge someone born with autism for their inability to inherently pick up on emotional cues and facial expressions. This means that even simply being in the top 40th percentile of IQ is enough for the mob to be after you for these concepts. Knowing that, you really have no other choice but to be a hero. To not do so would be to throw away the gifts you’ve been given. If you choose to live such a life, it may be better that you were never born at all. You have an obligation to everyone who is not you, to live your life to the extent of your natural abilities. You’re tall? You better give basketball a real shot. You’re short and have a longer torso than your legs? You should pick up a Tennis racket and join a soccer team. You have thin fingers and can keep rhythm in your head in perfect silence? You owe it to us to take music lessons in piano, drums, guitar or any other instrument that catches your fancy. Do you have a compulsion to write whenever given the chance, do you have stories chasing their way around inside of your head? Write a book, start a blog, join your school newspaper. Do you have an instinctual knack for knowing what flavors will go well together and what can be substituted in to a recipe? Make a cook book, or start a restaurant.
You owe us.
Whatever your genetics naturally pre-dispose you to, you owe us. And more than that, you should not listen to us when we tell you what to do in this context. In much the same way that people who have a talent for economics owe the rest of the world to make the right decisions and to not let the crowd sway us just because they don’t like it. They can’t like it of course, they are incapable of liking it. In much the same way that you don’t go to a world class restaurant and ask them to sub things off of your order. The chef put the food pairing together, and the chef gave you enough options to fit your palate. Find an item you like and order it, as it is on the menu; you can’t out-chef the chef, and if you can, open your own restaurant. In much the same way, if you go to therapy, don’t pick and choose what you will and won’t tell your therapist. Tell them the whole story and let them provide advice, you aren’t the therapist, they are, and if they do a bad job, get a new therapist. They can identify what is and isn’t meaningful and provide context, you can’t identify what is and isn’t meaningful, otherwise you wouldn’t be there for advice in the first place. Similarly, if you have a lawyer, tell them everything; let them give you advice based on the full picture. If you lie to them or hide things, they will give you the wrong advice. You aren’t a lawyer, don’t try to pick and choose what you say; and if you don’t like your lawyer, get another one. The same advice is true for your doctor. You shouldn’t be fighting against them, if you think they are making bad choices, get a new doctor.
Find your talents, and exploit them to the maximum ability you can, and own your area of expertise. When you find people in your life who have talents in other areas that surpass your own, take a back seat and let them lead that area of your life. Everything gets better when you do.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Flirtcheap’s Asymmetric Economics to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.