Welcome anon to another week of paid content.
Please refer to the Backdrop Post and trade with mindfulness.
Please refer to Definitions page for any terms or abbreviations that I use that you don’t understand. If a term is missing, please let me know.
Please feel free to skip around or ignore certain sections if it does not apply to you. The Table of Contents is made to preserve your time in this manner. You can always simply read the conclusion if you are in a hurry.
All times given in this update are in US Central time (UTC-6 clock).
Song of the week - Colter Wall - Bury me not on the Lone Prairie
Table of Contents
Mindfulness of Ignorance
Economic Calendar
New Zealand Interest Rates
US Treasury Auctions - Feb.
Geo-Political Risk
Ukraine
China
Crypto Macro
Conclusions
1. Mindfulness of Emotions
I made a mistake.
For those of you that have read the advanced DeFi guide for Decentralized Exchanges and how to farm new token launches, you have a vague idea of what the basic strategy is. First in, First out. If any one on this site should know this, it’s me. And yet, I got greedy, I outlined an exit condition, I made my exit condition, but for each 6 hours I held the position, I made an extra $1,000. Despite being at my exit condition, I decided to stay in the Liquidity Pool for an extra 18 hours, I went to sleep, and woke up to Impermanent Loss in excess of $10,000. I knew better. If I had just read my guide, I would have been exiting. Instead I unfortunately had to break even on a trade that had moved significantly in my favor, bad trading emotions can turn a good trade into a bad one. Of course, this isn’t the worst thing in the world. Because I stayed in a pool paying me ~1,400% APY, which has amounted to about $200 a day, but that is not what I’m here for. Mongol Raider, I’m not trying to settle in and farm like some cuck. I’m here to roll from pool to pool draining liquidity that the farm cucks have put in.
I made a mistake. I got greedy, and I tried to maximize my position.
Why?
I often harp on here how being in the wrong emotional state will cause you to ignore the things you know are true and correct. This is an example of that exact thing. As some of you know, I have had my bank accounts locked for the past 6 weeks. I was originally told this would take 21 days, and then told it would take 42 days, and now I’m just receiving radio silence from the bank and from the lawyers involved. It’s hard for me to remove myself from that situation and to trade dispassionately. So I found myself thinking about making money to replace what was illegally garnished from me. And that thought poisoned my mind when I was looking at the liquidity pool and my position. As I say many times, this market is ever-green and there is literally always a new opportunity launching the next day. No matter what is going on in your life, you have to be able to detach that from what you are doing if you want to be able to successfully participate in the markets. You can’t be thinking about what the money is worth, what its value is to you, etc. etc. etc. And if you find yourself unable to escape those thoughts, the best thing you can do is to walk away and reset yourself before approaching the markets again.
In the grand scheme, did I lose anything? No, I profited 1 ETH out of the pool and exited at break-even of my entry price. But it feels like a loss to me because I lost my momentum, and missed the actual trade that I had entered the pool for. I had been creating an Advanced DeFi guide #2 regarding how to find and value new opportunities and was planning to roll the funds into a protocol I had found in an attempt to show how to snowball from pool to pool and why its more preferable than settling down to become a farm cuck. Having it feel like a loss is enough for me to need to take a second and recalibrate before jumping back in. The worst thing you can do in any market is revenge trade. Revenge trading is when you try to make up for losses by taking riskier positions, and it’s a symptom of bringing bad emotions from your last trade to your next trade.
We’re not going to do that.
The Advanced DeFi guide #2 is going to turn into a formal review of the Fantom ($FTM) blockchain instead. Coming soon.
2. Economic Calendar
Refer to Economic Calendar Settings Post for filter settings used.
This is a relatively light week again. The only meaningful event is going to be the Royal Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision on Tuesday. Of course there are other ongoing macro-events right now in Canada, Ukraine, and China, which I’ll touch on here as well.
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