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Song of the Week - Benjamin Tod - “I Will Rise”
Table of Contents
Leave Room For Heroes
Argentina’s new President
Escape from Peronism
Venezuela Votes to Attack the UK
Conclusion
Internal References
1. Leave Room for Heroes
Many of you reading this are here because you hold heterodox beliefs in some form or fashion.
We’re in crypto because we believe established finance and fiat monetary systems are too broken to function credibly in the future despite being the primary form of exchange at current. You may have found yourself breaking with established politics or worldviews due to disappointment from politicians, broken promises, or outright lies. You may find yourself with differing views on major events due to unanswered questions or broken causality within those events. You may find yourself with differing views on relationships and values than your generational cohort because of your relationship with pop culture.
These are all legitimate concerns and complaints. There’s nothing wrong with holding them. The term “conspiracy theorist” is just a poor way for an individual to dismiss you rather than engage and risk bringing about cognitive dissonance. There’s nothing wrong with someone wishing to avoid cognitive dissonance in their own life either. Life requires a lot of focus and attention to get right, many don’t have the spare time or spare focus to ask questions, so please, leave them be.
I’m here to discuss an issue with us, not with them. I see this often within the heterodox sphere. We are so used to being outside of the mainstream that we don’t know what it looks like to live through a changing of the guard. Essentially, we don’t know how to win.
Cernovich speaks about it above, but many others have said similar things. My DM’s on IG always have a few people doing this exact thing whenever I express anything positive.
My DMs are mostly positive, don’t let me give you the wrong impression. But there is a certain type of guy (yes, they’re always men) who doesn’t know how to win. If I get 50 messages about a story post, ~5 of them will be like the message above. Elon is controlled Op, Trump is controlled Op, Milei is controlled Op, Meloni is controlled Op, etc.
It’s not that you have to agree with everything I say, you don’t… but…
On a more serious note, I say this to every single dissident out there or anyone who has an opinion that is counter to or outside of the norm. You’ve already won, you just don’t know it yet. This is the only correct attitude when working from the outside. You’re winning, and you need to be capable of looking for signs of winning when they arise.
What does winning look like? Winning looks like acceptable norms and conversations shifting. Winning is things that were totally and wholly outside of the Overton Window coming back into them. Winning is changing the fight from "how do we stop the government from printing money” into the fight over “which government ministries are we going to destroy.” Winning is the Argentinian Public TV Channel inviting Conan O’Brien to beg and plead not to eliminate the Public Channel.
Winning is being able to have a discussion on social media about anything you want without wondering or worrying it’s going to get censored. Below is what a regular day pre-Elon looked like for me on Twitter. Now, this is just how IG looks, I can say anything on Twitter.
We have to remember and recognize how many things are changing for the better and in our direction. I couldn’t even be on Twitter for the 2020 elections because jokes were bannable offenses. Or worse, criminal offenses.
In 2010 talking about central banks would result in blank stares. The general public had little clue what they did or what was going on. To be fair today, the public still doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, but at least the central bank is in the conversation regularly. The discourse is shifting heavily in our favor. The attitude of the young (16-24) also shows a stark shift. I’ve said this before, but young people are speed-running most conspiracy theories through the use of the internet. A 60-year-old conspiracy theorist would’ve had to go to public libraries, cross-referenced events, and make chance phone calls/conversations to get enough information to support their theory. Now 8th graders are making 2 minute tik-toks about the creature from Jekyll Island and casually referencing the Gulf of Tonkin as an allegory for 9/11.
The discourse has shifted heavily. You might not see it among your generational cohort because most people only openly interact with media for a ~6-year window before making their mind up and avoiding anything new (don’t do this if you can avoid it); but trust me, the Overton Window has shifted massively.
And so I end this by asking you to leave room for heroes. They’re real people, they aren’t perfect. Even hell has its heroes. What is a hero? A hero is someone who accepts pain or punishment to do what they know is right. You can measure someone’s conviction by just what they are willing to lose or give up to keep holding a belief or complete an action. Regardless of what you think of him, Donald Trump lost ~$1.2 billion in net worth as a result of running for president, and he will likely spend the rest of his days in court fighting legal battles because of it. Yet he’s running again. He is convicted (lol).
President Donald Trump said in October 2019 that being president is costing him money. Lots of it.
“Whether I lost $2 billion, $5 billion or less, it doesn’t make any difference,” Trump said. “I don’t care. I’m doing this for the country. I’m doing it for the people.”
A hero is not the savior of the city, nor are they the man Will Smith or The Rock envision themselves to be. They are not strong and popular. They aren’t everybody’s favorite person. Most true heroes are hated and die tragically. You’re a hero based on what you’re willing to give up to do the right thing. You’re a hero based on what you lose, not based on what you gain.
Elon Musk was comfortable and the default opinion of him was positive. He didn’t have to risk anything for us. He didn’t have to set money on fire to buy Twitter. But he did it anyway because he thought our little conversations and frog memes were more important than $44 billion.
These are big examples, but can you think of smaller examples?
The simplest examples are when people risk their well-being to save others.
A man walks into a fire to save an elderly man and then leaves before anyone can ask his name. Hero.
Chalino Sanchez receives a death threat telling him to stop singing bad songs about the Mexican drug cartels mid-concert. He picks up the mic 30 seconds later and keeps going. He was shot to death that night. Hero.
Many examples of martyrdom exist in religion. Christians were eaten by lions in the Colosseum because their faith was more important to them than their lives. Sikh gurus were boiled alive, sawn in half, or wrapped in cotton and then boiled alive because they wouldn’t renounce their faith and convert to Islam.
Nothing changes, today’s religion is statism: a belief in government solutions for all problems. They will ask the non-believers to renounce their beliefs, and if they don’t they will increase the temperature and pressure until you renounce.
Once you break from what’s expected the tests will come. They canceled Kanye’s shoe deal. The advertisers pulled off of Twitter. They keep pushing until you break or they run out of levers they can pull against you.
In Argentina, Milei will be similarly tested. We will see the depths of his faith by what he is willing to endure to make his vision a reality. We will also see what resources Leftists in Argentina have to use, or if it will be similar to Brazil where violence is the main form of pushback.
The strength of your beliefs is only measured by what you will give up to hold on to those beliefs. There are many people alive who are unwilling to feel even the slightest pain or discomfort and will adjust to avoid it instantly. These people can barely even be said to be alive.
A long time ago I wrote about this feeling and accompanied it with a movie clip.
I once read an essay by the esteemed modern author Delicious Tacos about the definition of a hero (the essay is password protected, sorry). It stands out to me today. A hero isn’t someone we cheer for. It’s not someone we celebrate. A hero is the person who does what is right and pays the cost for it, even when doing the wrong thing has no immediate consequences. If you read DT, you know he mainly just writes about sex, dating, and his own personal life, so this isn’t that deep, but it is. Our society is devoid of heroes. Everyone is pursuing comfort and avoiding pain at all costs. When I watched “Don’t Look Up,” I empathized the most with Mark Rylance’s character. The disdain for his fellow man, I felt it.
The video has (of course) been deleted by the censors at YouTube, it cuts at the heart of this issue. If you can, I suggest watching “Don’t Look Up” again. Specifically, pay attention to the scene where the Bash CEO tells the main character how he’s going to die. He’s right. The data is correct.
When you get to the end of the movie, meditate on this scene, and on how the movie ended for the main character. This movie was not about climate change or whatever most people thought it was about. The movie was about being something, anything, even if it makes people uncomfortable. Most people live an entire life without being anything at all except what other people around them need them to be. They can’t even express different opinions from others without retreating, caveating, or hiding their feelings the moment any disagreement appears.
This is not what life is about.
When you see someone taking slings and arrows in the public domain for their beliefs or actions and refusing to waver, pay attention to the moment. If not for any other reason than that they have chosen to consciously be alive, if even for just a brief glimmer of time.
2. Argentina’s new President
The mad lad has done it. This is the first time in history that a Libertarian candidate has won a national election for the highest office in any country.
And he is a firebrand.
If you understand Spanish, this video is even more interesting since the text translation takes several liberties to capture the spirit of what he’s saying particularly for an American audience. You’ll note that he says “You can’t allow them a millimetre,” but this is translated to “can’t give them an inch.”
Meaning that this content (originally posted to Tik-Tok) was intended for an American audience. The purpose of why it is being translated in this manner for an American audience is yet to be seen, but rest assured, this content was made for you.
On an unrelated note, Javier Milei wants to dollarize Argentina. The below interview is a much more serious discussion of his plans for the economy. Note he has a fleshed-out plan to retire the Argentine Peso over several years, privatize several national sectors that have collapsed under corruption and government mismanagement, and to allow Argentine laborers to maintain their savings.
The Argentine Peso, as a currency, is worthless. As we discussed last week, this has been rumbling around since Summer as a potential solution for Argentina’s economic woes. I often talk about Argentina because it is the end goal of leftist economics. From a factual standpoint, no economy has implemented leftist economics and managed to accrue long-term improved outcomes for its citizens. This is something many people do not want to hear. Leftist political beliefs are typically beliefs born out of luxury. The purpose of government is not to affirm your self-image, nor is it to normalize outcomes among minority groups with disparate aggregate strengths and beliefs.
The purpose of government is to build walls to protect the city from wolves. The purpose of government is to organize militias to guard the roads so merchants can bring food, medicine, and other essentials to your city gates. The purpose of government is to hang anyone by the neck who interferes with the ability of your population to breed and feed themselves.
Modern man sees government as a luxury. Every position within it is seen as loot to be plundered and shared among one’s interest group. The bigger picture is often ignored until problems become glaring enough for people to realize why the walls were built in the first place.
Ten years ago, the entrance exam to become an air traffic controller was revised. No longer did it focus on the skills relevant to the job, but instead on things chosen specifically to change the balance of minorities in these government jobs. The result is a shortage of air traffic controllers and several near misses. One day, the luxuries we voted for will result in an airplane crashing. You may think such an accident is a horrible tragedy and those that will undoubtedly die in such are innocent victims.
They are not victims. We are not victims.
Ayn Rand already laid out the causality of such an incident in Atlas Shrugged. If you have not read it yet, you should. Her depiction of libertarian heroes is unrealistic, but her depiction of the average person is spot on. We are all responsible for every tragedy that befalls us. Here we inspect the Winston Tunnel Train crash from Chapter 7.
“It is said that catastrophes are a matter of pure chance, and there were those who would have said that the passengers of the Comet were not guilty or responsible for the thing that happened to them.
The man in Bedroom F, Car No.13, was a lawyer who had said, 'Me? I'll find a way to get along under any political system.'
The woman in Roomette 6, Car no. 8, was a lecturer who believed that, as a consumer, she had "a right" to transportation, whether the railroad people wished to provide it or not.
The man in Drawing Room A, Car No 6, was a financier who had made a fortune by buying 'frozen' railway bonds and getting his friends in Washington to 'defreeze' them.
The man in Seat 5, Car No.7, was a worker who believed that he had "a right" to a job, whether his employer wanted him or not.
The woman in Roomette 9, Car No. 12, was a housewife who believed that she had the right to elect politicians, of whom she knew nothing, to control giant industries, of which she had no knowledge.
These passengers were awake; there was not a man aboard the train who did not share one or more of their ideas. As the train went into the tunnel, the flame of Wyatt's Torch was the last thing they saw on earth.
Spoilers - The train crashes in the tunnel. Everyone on the train died because of someone’s unwillingness to make people uncomfortable. The train crashed because it was an essential asset within an economy that had been cut up and traded for spoils rather than treated as something whose outcomes were more important than personal enrichment. A society that values functional transportation more than it values special interests will thrive. While one that takes important roles and gives them to its preferred groups will falter.
Argentina was taken off the shoulders of those who built it so that those builders could shrug when faced with problems. With this election, there is a chance that the world might be put back in its rightful place. Which is upon the shoulders of those with the capability to hold it up.
You may remember a post from me on IG for Milei’s birthday back on May 1st of this year.
At that point, the official exchange rate for the Argentine Peso was 221 to $1 USD, and the unofficial exchange rate was 467 to $1 USD. It’s been 7 months and the exchange rate today is below.
The unofficial rate hit a high of 1100 ARS to $1 on October 21st. Essentially in 7 months, they experienced 100% inflation against the dollar. You can imagine what that might do to the productive class and the working class. Anyone with the means and ability to leave is either leaving or finding a way to earn money in another currency.
Between September 2020 and October 2021, about 50,000 Argentines stated they were leaving to move to another country, an average of 3,500 per month. “There’s a significant flow of creative and wealthy people leaving,” said Hora, and that could accelerate given how most pandemic-related travel restrictions have been lifted to major cities worldwide.
If you earned the average wage in Argentina on May 1st, 2023, you made ~$650/month. Now, you make $348/month. In terms of minimum wage, Argentina went from the middle of the pack for South American countries to 2nd to last. With only Venezuela behind it. It’s no surprise that people in careers that can’t leverage remote incomes are physically picking themselves up to go to other countries.
This sort of emigration is calamitous to any functioning economy and it ultimately can’t last. This is why Milei’s election is of utmost importance. It’s a miracle he was elected at all, but the youth movement behind him was massive. For anyone with any consideration for a viable future in Argentina, he was the only choice.
For now, his proposals are still promises, he does not take office until December 10th. At that point, we’ll begin to see if his promises to dismantle many of Argentina’s government ministries will come to pass. Or will the bureaucrats convince him that their pet projects and personal income are necessary to support the country? Who knows. Will his plan to begin retiring Argentine debt and dollarizing the country over the next two years begin to occur, or will the spending continue? Who knows. Will he eventually fully dollarize and then switch the country’s reserve to Bitcoin a few years from now, or will that plan be abandoned? Who knows.
Will he prove the strength of his convictions, or will he falter? Who knows. But at least the conversation has shifted.
3. Escape from Peronism
Milei’s legacy is still up in the air for now. Let’s explore how Argentina got here in the first place. Argentina has been captured by Peronists in government for the better part of the last 40 years. The shortest explanation of Peronism is that it’s essentially a labor/left-wing party born out of 19th-century largesse. There was once a time when Argentina had the highest per-capita income in the world. Its GDP grew at 5% per year and it was exporting several trade goods to war-torn Europe after WW1 and WW2. It had heavy sources of nitrates, oil, and gas, as well as some of the most prime ranchland and farmland in the world. Amongst all of this plenty, an idea was born. There was so much excess money, that any problems or hardship that arose could be solved through government expansion. Juan Peron ran with this idea and won the 1946 election. Within a few years of being elected, Peron tripled government expenses and doubled the government workforce. Any problem that arose was solved by printing money or hiring more people.
Large charity was made by the government in view of the public, but they never bothered to be sure that the money came from somewhere else. The Peronist spends money and covers debt by printing more money. When you are the most wealthy country in the world (which Argentina once was) this can seem like a path to prosperity. Many of those who supported this use of the government died before they ever saw its consequences. Argentina was still a decent place to live in for several decades after Peron’s election. They had a long way to fall, and fall they most certainly did. Argentina’s first bout with trouble wasn’t for another 12 years when they made their first arrangement with the IMF to borrow money. At that time the arrangements were small for ~$100 Million a year from 1958-1962. Roughly $1 billion in today’s money. (Sidenote - These arrangements were for SDRs not for dollars, which is a basket of member currencies, I don’t know what the makeup of SDRs was in 1958, it wasn’t 100% dollars, I am just assuming that for ease of math at this point). They have used the IMF for lending every decade since then and currently owe them 31,913,710,000 in SDRs, which they are in the middle of attempting to restructure with the IMF. Argentina has defaulted on its external debt 3 times since 2001 and the outlook is grim for their ability to ever pay it off.
Currently, the Argentine government receives roughly $103 billion in annual tax revenues, while spending ~$101 billion in annual spending. Sounds great right? This doesn’t include interest payments on debt, of which they currently owe $44.5 billion USD.
This normally wouldn’t be too much of a problem, the issue is that I converted all of these figures into USD (numbers from June 2023). Unfortunately, these numbers are actually in Argentine pesos which are rapidly depreciating, while the debt is denominated in USD. They allocate spending at the beginning of the fiscal year, but due to inflation, the tax money they receive through the year loses half of its value before they can pay for their expenditures. Worse, the debt is in USD which is rapidly deflating compared to their home currency. This means that their ability to repay the money they borrow speeds away from them before their debt comes due.
The problem is not the debt, it’s simply that every time the IMF restructures debt for them to be able to afford it, they then print like crazy until they can no longer afford to pay back their debt. All of their problems begin and end at the government level. And each time the IMF restructures debt and tries to limit government deficits as a percent of GDP the Peronist government of Argentina then cries out about austerity and the world imposing itself upon Argentina.
The next time the IMF comes knocking, they will speak to Milei, and any deal to restructure debt might end in something that Argentina can pay off if only they can control their spending first. Getting out of the hole is the only thing that will (ironically) allow the Argentinian government to truly expand. The only way governments truly grow is when the economic activity within their geography grows. Governments try to cheat this fact by raising taxes, but that isn’t real growth, just stealing from tomorrow to pay for today. I’m not in support of governments growing, but a successful government will grow by definition. America didn’t end up this big by accident. It happened as a result of the economic activity in this country growing rapidly. Bureaucrats usually do not have the caution to wait for this growth before growing and typically choose to borrow from anticipated future tax income to cover spending today.
We will follow the same course as Argentina eventually if we do not also internalize this fact. I’m hoping for Argentina’s sake that Milei can not only right the ship but start a new faction of politics within Argentina focused on free(r) markets and economic responsibility. If for no other reason than people like us need more places where we can live comfortably.
4. Venezuela Votes to Attack Guyana
Over the last few days, Venezuela held a referendum to annex Essequibo, which is a region in Guyana.
For those of you that may not know. Guyana is a former British colonial territory that is now a republic. They speak English and the largest ethnic groups are Indian (from the country India) and Black.
When Spain and Portugal first settled South America they didn’t quite manage to establish colonies in the entire continent. This is why the British, French, and Dutch have these little insertions in the corner of South America that are today Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. These three countries speak English, Dutch, and French respectively. French Guiana is still considered to be French territory and not its own country.
The Portuguese had a rough northern border and the Spanish had a rough Eastern border that neither side could cross with a colony. This border was agreed upon before they had fully surveyed the continent. So this little corner of South America ended up outside of that.
This allowed other European powers to set up colonies in this small section of South America. Venezuela declared independence in 1811, and a few decades later the British sent a surveyor out to survey and demarcate where the border between Guyana and Venezuela lies. Few people lived in this space aside from local tribes of Amerindians at the time, so at the time it didn’t displace anyone or cause issues for the border to be on the Orinoco River, on the Essequibo River, or halfway in between like it is now.
Both sides will point out how the other’s nearest city/town/construction of any sort is far from their preferred border. This is true. At the time the British had only settled Georgetown on the Demara River, and the Venezuelans had a handful of tiny missions on the Orinoco River and Guyana city further down the river. The border today is about halfway between Georgetown and the Venezuelan missions.
If you look at the region that is being disputed now you’ll see that it still has a distinct lack of settlements of any kind aside from a few tribal settlements on the Kaituma and Waini Rivers.
It’s 99.99% jungle. Yet, Venezuela has been pushing this issue for ~150 years and was recently in the ICJ (International Court of Justice) attempting to resolve the dispute. Understand that they have never signed a single document agreeing to the current border in 150 years. So, I do understand where they are coming from, but from the functional perspective of why we have borders and why we choose them, I have trouble seeing why the Venezuelans want to push the border to Georgetown when the current border is halfway between Georgetown and the Orinoco river. There are no people in that area who are ethnically or culturally Venezuelan. There is no infrastructure they built in that region.
The only reason they are doing this is that the land has been surveyed for minerals and was found to have a few good deposits of oil, gold, and other minerals.
That’s it.
What’ll happen?
Well, Venezuela voted to annex it. They’d need to invade with their military and hold territory to annex it in any meaningful way. But Venezuela’s military is only ~120k strong. With ~60k infantry (conscripts and professional soldiers).
Venezuela’s Navy… exists, but it’s less than impressive and has already lost a battle with an unarmed cruise ship.
the Venezuelan Air Force has about a dozen helicopters and maybe 2 dozen functional 4th generation fighter jets. For reference, most major countries are on 5th-generation fighter jets.
For the size of the country, Venezuela’s armed forces are a bit lackluster. Of course, Guyana has even less since it is essentially just one town of ~120,000 people.
The real issue is if Venezuela tried to do anything, would the international community attempt to defend Guyana? Maybe. But it’s a meaningless discussion since the largest mineral discovery was an offshore oil discovery. Currently, a conglomerate of Oil companies (ExxonMobil, HESS, CNOOC (China)) has been working with the Guyanese government to increase the exploitation of this oil field.
This oil field is large, and if Exxon’s consortium can fully exploit it at the rate of their other oil fields, Guyana would become the 4th largest offshore oil exporter in the world and would have the most proven oil reserves per capita of any country in the world.
Exxon and others do not want to work with the Venezuelan government. In 2007 when Venezuela nationalized all existing oil infrastructure within its borders it took several fields that had been developed and built by Conoco Phillips. Since then, Conoco Phillips has been in court for the past 16 years trying to get some semblance of money back. They’ve won an award of $8.7 billion, but of course, that is meaningless to the country of Venezuela which has refused to pay. After nationalizing the infrastructure, the Venezuelan Government ran it into the ground because they didn’t do any maintenance and ran out of money.
Is Venezuela going to occupy the jungle? No. If they do anything, it might be a weak attempt at a naval embargo on ships heading to the oil field. That will get slapped down quickly, possibly we’ll send a Carnival Cruise Liner to do our dirty work.
This is mostly meaningless politics for now. But who knows in what manner China may attempt to use this to poke at the UN and its views on borders/treaties with ex-colonial powers.
4. Conclusion
Leave space in your heart for heroes. They exist, and they’re out there. Just because the liberty movement has taken many losses in the past does not mean that you should forget how to win. Find convictions of your own. You only really ever get 1-2 chances a year to display your convictions. Will you shrink back, or will you rise to the occasion?
Milei is a radical departure from existing politics in Argentina. Don’t wave him away, this is a significant change and one you should keep an eye on if he can last and if he can succeed with his plans.
Maybe Argentina can find it’s former glory in time and if luck is on our side. I believe that it is.
5. Internal References
If you’re new and have a question, please read the FAQ post first.
If you wish to search through my entire substack, please refer to this guide post.
Please refer to the Definitions page for any terms or abbreviations that I use that you don’t understand. If a term is missing, please let me know.
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This was fucking brilliant! Thanks for the reminder to remember to take a W when you get it! I’ve got some negative-Nancy type friends who are exhaustingly black-pilled like it’s some kind of fucking merit badge they earned from “being in the know”. Too many podcasts and not enough adventures. “I hate people” they’ll say with a smug look on their face. It’s obvious they don’t actually “hate people”. They’re just scared that if they assume the best in people that they’re going to be disappointed. They lack the confidence to put any meaningful effort into interactions with others and they see those interactions as “unimportant”. But how many times have you had an awesome conversation with an absolute stranger because you complimented him on his taste in style or physique? Those interactions make up a lot of our lives and I refuse to just treat everyone outside my circle as an NPC. Chesterton said something like “the man without expectations is always pleasantly surprised.” I’m stoked for the future, fuck the despair-mongers, life is fucking beautiful.
Dude, you should try reading this new(ish) Substack (link below). Hard to categorise, but sort of very interesting essays about modern society and politics and culture in English but from a French perspective. I think you'll find a lot of resonance with the kind of socio-cultural stuff you write about but with a very different and older/more literary voice and set of experiences (former French diplomat etc).
Start with the one below and go through the list of "top essays":
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/reality-would-like-a-word