It’s been ~10 months, and as we speak there are ~90 posts on this substack. At an average of 3,000 words per post, it can be a lot. As a new subscriber you might feel like not bothering to browse through the existing back catalog. It’s a book at this point. (3,000 words x 90 posts = 270,000 words). You can consider this substack to be the Flirtcheap Financial Bible.
There’s a lot of great information in the back catalog, and I do my best to link back to relevant sections whenever I can, but I understand how that can still be overwhelming when you are trying to digest a 4,000 word post and the links within it spider back into a 30,000 word morass.
This post exists as kind of a rolodex with brief descriptions and links back to posts that I think are relevant still and imperative to understand. Just scrolling through the archive and reading the titles isn’t enough for anyone to really know what’s in any post. This post exists to help you.
To save you some time, please be aware that the links below are just to a section of a post and not to an entire post. You only need to read the section being linked.
Paywalled Sections will have a ($$$) in front of it.
Table of Contents
Mindfulness and trading
Central Bank Macro
US News
Japanese News
European News
UK News
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Swiss News
BRICS News
AI and Operational Security
Crypto News
Crypto Guides
1. Mindfulness and Trading
Trading mindfulness, and being cognizant of our own limitations and managing our emotions.
Mindfulness of our Goals and Objectives
Mindfulness of market cycles and our place in time
Mindfulness of Risk, taking profits and managing your position size
Mindfulness of our Own Ignorance
Mindfulness of our Emotions and a mistake I made
Why you shouldn’t cheer for Tom Brady to fail
($$$) The Jungian archetypes of a trader - The Speculator
($$$) The Jungian archetypes of a trader - The User
Mindfulness of risk when trading news event, specifically 2017 french presidential election
($$$) Imposter Syndrome and how to handle large cash windfalls
($$$) Risk management for small alt-coins
($$$) How to read my charts, identify price structure and make your own charts
Why you should never try to do “Retirement Math”
The Decentralization of Authority
The Economic Midwit - Entire Post
Beyond Boom and Bust, an intro to Nietzschean Trading Philosophy
($$$) Blockchains and dissidence
2. Central Bank Macro
Why is central bank policy relevant to crypto and the broader asset markets?
Understanding the Treasury bond market conditions, for dummies
December 2021 predictions for the US treasury market for the entirety of 2022.
Why I believe crypto is the appropriate form of fiat to replace government money.
Why the stock market will likely not perform as a store of value against inflation
Why parallel economies are a good thing and why they benefit users who are outside of the mainstream - Definitely read the entire post
($$$) Why Crypto is the primary escape vehicle from mismanaged fiat currencies
How central banks make profits (and losses) and what they do with them
Bitcoin as Legal Tender - Entire Post
($$$) Record Capital gains and Corporate Tax Receipts impacting Treasury Auction size
($$$) Understanding Central Bank Minutes
Why global demand for a currency enables governments to spend above their means
($$$) Western sovereign banks being treated as less reliable counterparties
($$$) What is the definition of a recession
Understanding how a Keynesian thinks
($$$) A historical exploration of Deflation and its impacts on an economy
Why Crypto is the WNBA of money
3. US News
January post about the Fed’s playbook in general - Definitely read the entire post
How and why US Employment statistics are being gamed using January 2022’s report as an example
Why most major wall street firms are the B-team when it comes to financial talent
($$$) April US inflation and a look at the rise in export prices as comparison
Why the DXY is not a useful measure of the dollar’s value
($$$) How changes to the treasury rates impact net interest payments on government debt
($$$) Why you shouldn’t be considering I-bonds as an inflation hedge
($$$) Why publicly traded companies won’t fare well in a stagflationary environment
($$$) Overnight Reverse Repurchase Facility and its coming impact to the US Treasury Markets
($$$) Predicting the 6/13 market collapse based on secondary treasury market sales
($$$) Carter Bonds and treasury practices of the 70’s that may return in some fashion to the 20’s
($$$) Why the Fed is the wrong target and predicting operational losses for the Fed in H2 2022 and beyond
($$$) Q2 GDP forecast significantly negative
Expected changes and trends in western labor markets over the 2020-2030 decade
($$$) Layoffs begin to be acknowledged in the US in July
($$$) US Energy production is unlikely to increase any time soon
We begin tracking QT From the Federal Reserve
($$$) The worst 1st half of a year for US bond markets since 1788
($$$) My expectations for Powell to surprise on the hawkish side into the 2nd half of the year
($$$) Is it or Isn’t it a recession
($$$) Shifting my Macro expectations after Powell speaks with a weaker tone than expected
($$$) Evidence that most job growth in the US is from people taking multiple part time jobs
Why US Tax revenue from 2022 will cause major problems in spring 2023
($$$) Yield Curve remaining inverted in August
($$$) U-3 vs. U-6 unemployment data
($$$) Significantly extended yield curve inversion ahead of September rate hike
4. Japanese News
Japan turns on infinite Yen printer in March, obvious prediction of Yen’s downfall
($$$) Why the Japanese Yen would be the first western currency to die
($$$) Understanding BoJ Head Kuroda and why he will continue printing until the end of his term in 2023
Runaway value loss in Japanese Yen
($$$) Continued collapse of Japanese Yen (June)
Japanese debt-to-GDP and continued failure at yield curve control despite infinite yen printer
Ruling Party consolidates more power in the wake of Shinzo’s assassination
($$$) BoJ still printing Yen infinitely in August
5. European News
($$$) January Predictions for Euro currency losing significant value due to ongoing printing
($$$) April post on Germany’s political fear of abandonment and why it was dooming the Eurozone to failure
($$$) April French presidential election predictions and risk to the Euro
April - ECB unable to even identify a date to end money printing
Results of French election and relief of pressure on the Euro
($$$) The dysfunctional family that is the Eurozone
($$$) The reality of EU debt using Greek and Italian 10y bonds as examples
($$$) The Eurozone will likely have to break up due to wildly different fiscal policy
Italian government resigns and no coalition can be formed
($$$) ECB finally raises the overnight lending rate
Europe pretending to have GDP growth despite overwhelming evidence they do not
The Far-Right emerges as a front-runner in Italian elections
ECB hikes rates 0.75% and it’s still not really enough for the markets
6. UK News
($$$) The definition of heroism and the moral bankruptcy of British bureaucrats
7. Australia
($$$) The main factors driving decision making for the Royal Bank of Australia
RBA head discusses current plan to hike rates into a rate cut in December 2023
8. New Zealand
($$$) Director of Economics at RBNZ is willing to let housing prices fall in order to fight inflation
9. Canada
April Rate hike and start of QT
($$$) How oil and gas revenues impact Canadian Sovereign Finances
($$$) Canada set for another large rate hike as hydrocarbon sales are high and housing down ~20%
10. Swiss News
Swiss weakly defending the Euro from the Swiss Franc
($$$) Predicting 1st Swiss rate hike in 15 years
($$$) First Swiss rate hike in 15 years, predicting the Swiss Franc breaking parity with Euro
11. BRICS News
This section is for news relevant to the BRICS sphere that I typically refer to as the global East. It includes, but is not limited to Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.
April post about the failure of sanctions on Russia being clear already
Is Saudi Arabia abandoning the Petro-dollar? No, but they are slowly walking away from it
($$$) How China lies with statistics and the impending chinese real estate credit default
Continual Chinese Real Estate development bond defaults
($$$) Why sanctions turned Euro-Ruble FX flows into a one way valve enriching Russia
The major Diplomatic weakness the west has in relation to Taiwan
The economic war between the East and West
($$$) The G-7 discusses trying to cap the price of Russian oil, and why this is incredibly foolish of them
The EEZ and why it causes so many conflicts worldwide
12. AI and Operational Security
Why you should be mindful of your behavior with any electronic device.
Dead Market Theory and musings on Japanese Shinto beliefs
13. Crypto News
Why Interoperability will be the crypto trend of the next bull market
($$$) $LUNA Post-mortem
($$$) Assessment of Lummus-Gillibrand Crypto Regulation senate bill
($$$) Celsius ends user withdrawals (June)
How mechanical liquidations drive ETH and BTC prices down (June)
3AC getting liquidated and predictions that large funds may be tied up in the future bankruptcy
($$$) AAVE, Solend, and $MIM news June 20th
($$$) Tentatively calling short term bottom on BTC 6/20
($$$) FTX purchases and bailouts of numerous distressed centralized crypto entities (June)
($$$) Bancor voting to temporarily suspend token emissions to prevent a malicious actor (3AC, Celsius, or both) from shorting BNT that they planned to sell in order to shore up cash
($$$) SNX short squeeze June
Harmony ONE bridge hacked for $100 million
($$$) Coinflex tokenizes Roger Ver’s debt and sells it at 80 cents on the dollar
($$$) Crypto bankruptcy and the claims waterfall using 3AC as an example
($$$) Celsius finishes paying off on chain loans, more evidence of mismanagement of user funds
($$$) Founders of 3AC begin fleeing authorities during their bankruptcy hearings in Singapore
($$$) Initial considerations for the ETH 2.0 merge from July
Tornado Cash gets sanctioned by the US Government
($$$) What the Tornado Cash Sanctions mean for ETH, for you, and for blockchain
($$$) Why blockchain entities have to comply with sanctions
($$$) How the ETH 2.0 merge and airdrop strains ETH liquidity ahead of the merge
($$$) ETH users may be the ones to fight future sanctions through ETH governance
14. Crypto Guides
The Blockchain Trilemma and why it’s very difficult for a competitor to displace ETH
Mercenary Capital Activities and gaming Liquidity Pool launches for profit
($$$) Decentralized Jobs in Crypto
Why Centralized Exchanges go down during time periods of significant volatility
($$$) Stablecoin Guide (Entire Post)
How Blockchains make decisions and creating a job on a blockchain
($$$) How project inflation dilutes staking rewards
($$$) Why Centralized Money Markets will go out of business (prior to Celsius bankruptcy)
($$$) All lending rates are market facing
($$$) The Stablecoin lending cycle and why it moves opposite to fiat lending cycles
Crypto VC Activities and how they impact the market
($$$) Insurance on the blockchain and quantifying risk
($$$) How crime on the blockchain is documented and traced
($$$) Potential 2nd order consequences after a bridge gets hacked
($$$) Tracking 2nd order impacts after the above bridge hack and a wallet hack
($$$) There will be no ETH killers in the next market cycle
I become the victim of an exploit of a blockchain dApp
Changes to ETH tokenomics from 2.0 update
($$$) Capital Flows prior to ETH 2.0 and why price will fall after ETH 2.0
($$$) Jobs in Crypto, selling translation services
This post will be updated on a weekly basis. I may re-arrange the sections or add more sections if I feel any section is getting too big to be helpful for readers to find what they may be looking for. Consider this to be an updated search bar. CTRL+F on this page and you’ll likely find what you’re looking for or at least be narrowed down on which link might take you to what you’re looking for.