Great article. I have one thing to add. In addition to everything you mentioned we are experiencing a decline in the number of overall workers (globally).
We’ve hit the apex of boomer retirement, currently we have a large generation (a significant portion of which held blue collar jobs) leaving the workforce. The replacement generation (gen Z that is just leaving college) is significantly smaller.
I expect the positions that provide real value are going to have pricing power. I work in healthcare. Over the past decade there was an explosion in hospital admin positions but the necessity of these positions is unclear. When in comes down to it MDs/nurses/techs are necessary for healthcare (can’t realistically be automated away anytime soon). The nursing shortage is currently limiting bed capacity/ability to do procedures. Nurse salaries have already increased but the shortage persists. I expect admin positions will be cut in order to further increase provider salaries in hopes of dealing with the shortage.
As business is forced to tighten up back to reality, the white collar bloat has to be removed to protect the actual positions that are fully necessary for production.
Will be the trend across the board as businesses try to figure out how much they have to pay the human beings that physically do the work.
We saw at the end of last year for instance that Cane's Chicken (fast food here in the US) actually just sent their white collar employees to work in their stores to address a labor shortage. At that point, they may as well be paying their restaurant staff a white collar wage and cutting their white collar headcount.
I can relate to that welding portion of the writeup. Started in the prefab shop of a pretty big mechanical contractor (in Bucks County, PA) March 2021 and as of this past April, they have taught me to weld and picked it up pretty quick so theyve let the leash off of me.
Was making $17.00 when I started and got bumped up to $22 this past review ($1.50 raise and $1 COL in between), which happened just as they started me out welding, so I am hoping to see another good raise come my next review in October.
The kids they had in that position before me that came out of a welding school didnt seem to care much about the attention to detail or deadlines. Im 27 and glad to have the opportunity to be PAID to learn a solid trade; they were 19 and 21 and didnt seem to hold that energy.
Fantastic and insightful, thanks for providing all the raw comments as well. I know this is very different from many of the jobs and fields you talked about, but I’m in the mental health field and the last two years have made me realize I’ll need to switch jobs constantly just to keep up, until I inevitably hit the salary ceiling, or I need to open my own practice. Hopefully mental health services dont become automated, but there does seem to be a crisis of affordable services/quality providers.
Given the current, and most likely future, climate it makes more sense for me to open my own practice and get the whole Medicaid rate (or private pay rate) rather than find a “corporate” job that pays a somewhat stable, but considerably inferior, salary. Particularly when it’s likely that there will be severe cuts to many of these government grants in the future.
I’ve also thought perhaps I picked the wrong field and need to switch to a trade job and continue the mental health work on the side (or pro bono). I work with clients who are currently on federal probation and they’re able to find entry level jobs that pay 20/hr here. It seems like a trade job provides better job security, more financial stability, and an actually useful skill. The white collar to blue collar shift you discussed is absolutely real.
Any ways you can find to offer online services could be a great idea as well. For instance, even simply writing about products that people might buy in your field with affiliate links and offering online consultations could be ways to scale and supplement your income while using your expertise to offer people an uncommon vantage point.
Substack (as you're aware, lol) is a great platform to write on. They offer quite a lot of freedom to creators and are well outside of the mainstream in their views of free speech. You can basically say anything here as long as it's not egregiously illegal.
One anecdote to add - where I live a lot of skilled and unskilled labor are immigrants from Mexico, and this may or may not be relevant but many are against the shot. To get your citizenship you have to get the shot, and I have heard directly and indirectly that many would rather go back to Mexico than get it if their visa is running out.
I see robot bussers in the bay area, and window washing robots. There's robot security at hotels already.
On the innovation front, the company I work for is looking into a sort of hybrid gig economy option of people trained in entry level jobs to tap into working hours whenever they want, and then we want to offer rates of pay dependent on demands and needs.
I didn't mention it in the article (honestly forgot) but the vaccine requirements are definitely playing a role in the labor shortage at the blue collar level. Quite a few people responded discussing temp agencies they used to bring people over from Central/South America on temp work Visas to fill positions. I do wonder how the consequences of that policy will echo out here in the US. Especially considering how some other countries are treating the vaccine manufacturers in terms of liability. Vaccination rates in countries we've depended on for cheap labor may be divergent compared to the local labor pool here in the US.
Great article. I have one thing to add. In addition to everything you mentioned we are experiencing a decline in the number of overall workers (globally).
We’ve hit the apex of boomer retirement, currently we have a large generation (a significant portion of which held blue collar jobs) leaving the workforce. The replacement generation (gen Z that is just leaving college) is significantly smaller.
I expect the positions that provide real value are going to have pricing power. I work in healthcare. Over the past decade there was an explosion in hospital admin positions but the necessity of these positions is unclear. When in comes down to it MDs/nurses/techs are necessary for healthcare (can’t realistically be automated away anytime soon). The nursing shortage is currently limiting bed capacity/ability to do procedures. Nurse salaries have already increased but the shortage persists. I expect admin positions will be cut in order to further increase provider salaries in hopes of dealing with the shortage.
This is a great example of exactly whats coming.
As business is forced to tighten up back to reality, the white collar bloat has to be removed to protect the actual positions that are fully necessary for production.
Will be the trend across the board as businesses try to figure out how much they have to pay the human beings that physically do the work.
We saw at the end of last year for instance that Cane's Chicken (fast food here in the US) actually just sent their white collar employees to work in their stores to address a labor shortage. At that point, they may as well be paying their restaurant staff a white collar wage and cutting their white collar headcount.
Utterly fascinating. I'm still trying to fill positions, hit me up if you need an unskilled job in Dallas frens.
Any chance of company lunches at Terry Black’s...? 🍖
I can relate to that welding portion of the writeup. Started in the prefab shop of a pretty big mechanical contractor (in Bucks County, PA) March 2021 and as of this past April, they have taught me to weld and picked it up pretty quick so theyve let the leash off of me.
Was making $17.00 when I started and got bumped up to $22 this past review ($1.50 raise and $1 COL in between), which happened just as they started me out welding, so I am hoping to see another good raise come my next review in October.
The kids they had in that position before me that came out of a welding school didnt seem to care much about the attention to detail or deadlines. Im 27 and glad to have the opportunity to be PAID to learn a solid trade; they were 19 and 21 and didnt seem to hold that energy.
Fantastic and insightful, thanks for providing all the raw comments as well. I know this is very different from many of the jobs and fields you talked about, but I’m in the mental health field and the last two years have made me realize I’ll need to switch jobs constantly just to keep up, until I inevitably hit the salary ceiling, or I need to open my own practice. Hopefully mental health services dont become automated, but there does seem to be a crisis of affordable services/quality providers.
Given the current, and most likely future, climate it makes more sense for me to open my own practice and get the whole Medicaid rate (or private pay rate) rather than find a “corporate” job that pays a somewhat stable, but considerably inferior, salary. Particularly when it’s likely that there will be severe cuts to many of these government grants in the future.
I’ve also thought perhaps I picked the wrong field and need to switch to a trade job and continue the mental health work on the side (or pro bono). I work with clients who are currently on federal probation and they’re able to find entry level jobs that pay 20/hr here. It seems like a trade job provides better job security, more financial stability, and an actually useful skill. The white collar to blue collar shift you discussed is absolutely real.
Any ways you can find to offer online services could be a great idea as well. For instance, even simply writing about products that people might buy in your field with affiliate links and offering online consultations could be ways to scale and supplement your income while using your expertise to offer people an uncommon vantage point.
Substack (as you're aware, lol) is a great platform to write on. They offer quite a lot of freedom to creators and are well outside of the mainstream in their views of free speech. You can basically say anything here as long as it's not egregiously illegal.
Super interesting.
One anecdote to add - where I live a lot of skilled and unskilled labor are immigrants from Mexico, and this may or may not be relevant but many are against the shot. To get your citizenship you have to get the shot, and I have heard directly and indirectly that many would rather go back to Mexico than get it if their visa is running out.
I see robot bussers in the bay area, and window washing robots. There's robot security at hotels already.
On the innovation front, the company I work for is looking into a sort of hybrid gig economy option of people trained in entry level jobs to tap into working hours whenever they want, and then we want to offer rates of pay dependent on demands and needs.
I didn't mention it in the article (honestly forgot) but the vaccine requirements are definitely playing a role in the labor shortage at the blue collar level. Quite a few people responded discussing temp agencies they used to bring people over from Central/South America on temp work Visas to fill positions. I do wonder how the consequences of that policy will echo out here in the US. Especially considering how some other countries are treating the vaccine manufacturers in terms of liability. Vaccination rates in countries we've depended on for cheap labor may be divergent compared to the local labor pool here in the US.